The Tories need to seduce graduates
Demographics will doom them unless they understand the education divide
The Tories have a graduate problem. As outlined in research from The Social Market Foundation, the Conservative Party is on the losing side of a growing divide in political behaviour. Education level is becoming the major indicator of how people vote and degree-level education now strongly points to voting Labour. This presents a systematic challenge to the future of the Tory Party when it tries to recover from impending electoral defeat.
This is a relatively sudden and schismatic move. From 1979 to 2015, graduate voters were more likely to back the Tories. This makes sense – they were generally better off, less dependent on public services and saw their economic interests aligned with the Conservatives. Now this relationship has been not just undone but smashed. More than 40% of graduates backed Labour in 2017 and 2019, while Tories scored best among those with just school-leaving qualifications.
On the right, this has been welcomed as part of the attempt at electoral realignment. It’s been spun as a sign of authenticity, the party pivoting towards “real voters” rather than the educated New Elite. It has led to Tory MPs launching drive-bys on the mores of graduates and universities. The graduates are woke, effete and out of touch, while the institutions are a waste of money and left-wing indoctrination centres. The problem for the Conservatives, however, is that demographic trends make this an electoral dead-end.
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