The Revolt of the Young Men?

Britain's second wokest cohort might surprise you

There is a narrative about the voting intentions of young people, especially men, that we repeatedly hear. The story points to them falling for Farage: voting for Reform, and leaning into the party on culturally and economically. We hear young people are the vanguard of the alt-right. People point to Farage’s numbers on TikTok and the age of some of his councillors and hangers-on as evidence of a youthquake. Some even suggest that extending the vote to 16- and 17-year-olds will provide the biggest electoral boost to Reform.

This analysis can be seductive, especially for older commentators who are falling in behind Reform. The idea that young men are falling in with Farage suggests that Reform is destined to be more than a pensioners’ party, that it represents a fresh, surging cultural change, and that it promises longevity. Talking it up flatters the egos and intentions of the Boomery and Gen X-ish Reform mainstream and provides a cultural cachet – and leverage – for the younger people in the party. Most of all, it is counterintuitive, running counter to the perceived wisdom of left-leaning young people. The only problem is that it doesn’t reflect reality.

While it is true that Reform has gobbled up a large chunk of the right-leaning youth, this is just reallocation within an already shrinking bloc. As with older people, they have cut into the share that normally backs the Conservatives, while perhaps picking up some other votes along the way. Yet rather than a far-right surge, the youth vote in the UK shows a remarkable opposite trend: a surge of progressive voting, including among young men.