The Kemi Paradox

Popular leader, unpopular party - what gives?

There has been a new mood in parts of the Conservative Party for the last few months. One that has almost tipped dangerously close to optimism. It is framed in part by Reform’s slight stutter in the polls, but also by a growing public fondness for Kemi Badenoch. Her improved performance, along with the defection of some of the most Reform-y elements, has headed off some of the plotting that was rife a year ago. She may even survive another disastrous round of local election results, especially if a collapsing Labour Party steals the headlines.

The Kemi-ssence has an element of truth to it. Badenoch’s personal poll ratings have steadily improved over the last 12 months or so. YouGov’s favourability ratings show a jump from 16% favourability to 27%. That might sound unimpressive, but it needs to be reckoned with the current context of British politics, where everyone hates everyone. Her net position (-25) is better than Farage’s (-39) and Starmer’s (-48). On favourability alone, she is arguably the most liked politician in Britain. Measured head-to-head, she vanquishes all comers. If this were a purely presidential system, the money would probably be on her. Unfortunately for the Tories, it isn’t – and the Badenoch bounce is yet to be replicated in the party’s numbers.

The Conservative Party has seen no such improvement. Its polling has been basically flat since last year’s locals. As I write this, the party is likely losing swathes of council seats, repeating the historically low performance a year ago. This presents a puzzle: why, if Kemi is proving so popular, is it not translating to the party as a whole?