The Corridor of Uncertainty

Will risk appetite define the next election?

Competence is typically one of the key themes of any election. The lines are drawn about who you trust to deliver, who you believe will get things done and stave off chaos. Yet the rise of Reform and the sentiments around it point to a new battle line for 2029. Less about stability, but more about whether to embrace the turmoil, and whether a big break from normality might be what Britain needs.

As terms like “the uni-party” gain salience, and voters feel frustrated by Labour’s first year in office, cynical and risky sentiments are rising. There is a growing sense that voters are ready to take a chance on Reform – even with a sense of trepidation about what they might actually deliver. This sensation could become one of the defining questions of the next election: whether the uncertainty of Reform is better than the status quo.

An already cynical public is increasingly drained of hope. There is anger against the system and a greater appetite to tear it all down. If that perseveres, it will be to Reform’s favour. The success of the other parties will be determined by how they counter it. For Labour, it will be about delivering their record now and standing up for it then. For the Tories, it is about rehabilitating themselves as an opposition and an alternative government. The next election won’t be the same old choice between government and opposition or even left and right – but whether the country is ready to take a significant risk on something completely new.