Starmer's Job Just Got Harder

The PM should worry about Trumpenomics and its consequences

I am not going to try to explain why the US presidential election went the way it did. Plenty of commentators on this side of the Atlantic made fools of themselves with over-sure predictions in the run-in; plenty more will do the same, trying to explain why they were wrong. I suspect that, without a deep feel for the states, particularly those bits of it which swung the election, it is almost an impossible task. To add to that, it's probably irrelevant.

The obsession with US politics many in and around Westminster hold is an understandable one. Their politics is the more significant, richer, glitzier cousin of ours. It's the Premier League, it's Hollywood, or whatever analogy you prefer. The internal movements, however, are very different to ours. America's internal politics are hard to understand from the outside, but they are also unlikely to map onto ours. The cultures, issues and trends are different. I've talked about this before. More important, really, are the repercussions of US policy and how they buffet us. With an indication now of what the next four years will hold, we can begin to think about this.

For Starmer, the result on Wednesday will have been a disappointing one. Personally, he now doubted he had an affinity for the US left and would pick the Democrats in any given contest. As a man visibly repulsed by brash populists, he will be no fan of Trump. Even without those personal pulls, the Prime Minister should have immediately recognised how much harder the return of Trump will make his own political fortunes and the chance of winning a second term.