Six days out

Some data, some thoughts, a prediction

The blue dam is about to burst

This time next week, it will all be over. The election, for sure. Tory-led government, most likely. The Conservative Party? Perhaps. Months of speculation will be concluded as the results first trickle, and then flood in. By Friday morning it will be clear just how much things have changed. A week out, however, it is worth looking at just where things are and where both the predictions and the fundamentals lie.

Over the last few weeks have had an unprecedented flow of polls and projections. It is hard to tell if they have sowed insight or confusion. In the last few cycles, MRP projections have taken on almost totemic status. Yet now there are so many with such differing answers, that it is hard to tease out a simple story. The general picture has been confused by a slew of cope, spin and narrative, much of which isn’t rooted in the data. Vibes and hunches have often replaced analysis.

With a week left, it is worth cutting through this a bit. Looking at where the numbers sit – and the things that drive them. To anticipate the election properly, it is worth understanding what remains in play, and where it could move the dial, as well as what the “known unknowns are” as we push into the final week. With that, it will hopefully be able to pre-empt not just how the election will end, but why it will be that way. If nothing else, this should help you sound clued up in the final few days of this campaign.