Red Shift

Not just parliament, but an entire eco-system is set to change.

As celestial bodies move away from us at great speed, strange things happen. The light reflecting from them increases in wavelength, shifting towards the red part of the spectrum. This redshift has been cited as proof that the universe is expanding. In a few weeks, the British body politic will undergo a similar shift. Like the movements of the galaxies, it will have a transformed hue.

 It is not simply the electoral map which is going to change. Yes, the Tories are going to lose. Yes, it seems likely to be a huge shift, with constituencies flipping from them like never before. None of the MRPs can be taken as gospel, but we are looking at a spread of outcomes, it seems running from 1997-style results to something far, far worse. But the change will go beyond that, upending the entire Westminster eco-system.

Over the last fifteen years we have got used to Tory ascendancy and dominance. The media, particularly political reporting, has grown around it. So too has the policy and lobbying pipeline. Tory power has been like a rich material deposit, attracting speculators and traders looking to exploit it. This in turn shapes the way we think about and discuss our politics, what is conceptually possible and where the battles are. In just three weeks, that deposit will be exhausted, and things will change hugely. Not just the party, but those who orbit will have to adjust to it.