No One Really Wants Autarky

Protectionist politicians are embracing what we've already rejected

From steel to Substacks.

For Trump, "tariff" is "the most beautiful word.” It has been a personal obsession for him ever since the eighties. For the rest of us, it is becoming an economic headache, perhaps the most obvious example of a politician pulling the sort of lever that has "DO NOT PULL" emblazoned upon it. The one-man crash has seen shares plummeting and predictions of recession rising. What little faith currently remains seems hinged on the hope he will change his mind.

This piece is not going to try to delve into the mind of Trump. His obsession with tariffs seems to defy logic. It is rooted in economic errors and misunderstandings. For some of his fellow travellers, however, there is a broader logic in this approach. For them, this is a pivot back towards mercantilism and autarky, as well as economic and industrial sensitivity. The idea has emerged from the economic backwoods in recent years, gaining traction with populist left and right. Even arch-Thatcherite John Redwood dipped into it at points during the Brexit years.

We see this in the words of Trump-supporting Americans now. A call back to the imagined halcyon days of American-made products forged by American hands in American factories. Part of the stated rationale for these tariffs is to bring back jobs making things. This is paired with a political appeal – that this will boost the American lower classes and, in turn, swing them to the Republicans, advancing and solidifying the march of MAGA.

It's a vision rooted in emotion rather than reality. They miss the hum of machines, the machoness of sparks, and sweat, but project these desires onto other people rather than themselves. It is detached from reality, imbued with something psych-sexual. Ultimately, it also ignores the real interests and views of the people it claims to be for.

The problem is, even if this autarky were achievable, it would be terrible. The reason we have ended up with global supply chains and exported labour is largely because that is what we want. Time and again, voters and consumers have chosen to get it made cheaply overseas because they want it cheap. Equally, we have moved away from the jobs of the early 20^th century because they, and the life they delivered, were grim and brutal. The autarky that populists promise is a mirage, comforting in theory but corrosive in practice. Ultimately, it is what very few people want.