Known unknowns

Critical reflections on polling and Tory cope

A double strike of MRP releases over the last week seems to confirm the devastating trajectory that the Conservative Party is on. First Survation predicted that the party would fall to fewer than 100 seats, and then YouGov followed up, with a forecast that the party would retain 155. Either would be a historically bad result for the party and would likely mean internal turmoil and a long slog back to electability.

It can now be pretty much accepted that these polls aren’t outliers. The vote shares echo those found in other polling, which is proving remarkably consistent. For a year now, when taken on aggregate and the anomalies smoothed, Labour support has hovered in the mid-forties, while the Tories have slid from nudging 30% to flirting with the low twenties. That different polls, with different methodologies, are returning such similar results means there are only two options for the Tories – either hoping for an industry-wide polling failure, or that something might change.

Both scenarios are plausible and possible. The question that remains is whether they are likely. So far, the noises out of the Conservative Party seem to hold that they are. The closest we get to an official line is that the polls are wrong, and in any case, things will change. To reckon with how nailed on a Tory catastrophe is, these are the known unknowns we must query.