Fragmentation in Action

A quick look at Gorton and Denton

Over the last few years, we have got used to seismic by-elections. From Owen Patterson onwards, they marked the trajectory of a Conservative Party that was losing everyone, everywhere. Time and again, records were set for swings against the government and for historic party losses. Now, Labour has taken up the mantle, with their rapid plummet in popularity being put to the test.

Denton and Gorton was perhaps a perfect battleground for this. A seat in Manchester, where Labour have dominated for decades, was a chance to test a few theories. The first was about whether politics is really shifting into bloc mode. The second: whether Reform could really mount a challenge in Labour’s backyard. While it is important not to read too much into by-election contests, the trends on display in G&D give us some clue about where our politics stands.

On the left, the message is clear – intra-bloc competition is the name of the game. The Green win appears largely driven by Labour haemorrhaging votes to them. To achieve this, the Greens must have taken votes across a range of demographics that are normally Labour. G&D is a typical urban constituency with a combination of younger, socially liberal voters and older, more diverse, generally poorer communities. It seems like both deserted the government.