The race is now officially on - not the Paris Olympics, but the contest to find the next permanent leader of the Conservative Party. Barring any calamities, it should be the thing that draws a line under the drama of the last few years and heralds a new period – as Labour rules with a comfortable majority and the Conservative Party looks to rebuild. It is more complicated than some might expect to predict who will win at this stage. Tory leadership battles can be complex things – and the circumstances and set-up of this one could provide for a particularly tumultuous contest.
The course for this race is quite different to recent versions, with a timetable more like 2005 when David Cameron (he was the future, once) won a surprise victory. Rather than a short Westminster-based campaign to whittle down to the final two, the contest has been elongated. All six candidates will fight for MPs votes for the next month before being whittled down to a final four. Those four will then campaign through conference, each giving keynote speeches before the parliamentary party vote them down to two. The last candidates will be put to the members, and a winner will emerge.
The drawn-out nature of the contest, combined with the flurry of activity around the conference, could shift how the results play out. This will differ from the recent leadership bouts with a different prize on offer – not immediate elevation to Number 10, but a long slog in opposition – and a lack of a clear favourite. Through the summer and autumn, we can expect momentum to build, with perhaps more scope for an upset than in previous contests – but at the same time, much could rest on the games, schemes, and second-guessing that Conservative leadership contests are known for.
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