And then there were two

What happened so far, and what might come next

There was a wave of shock in Westminster yesterday as the results of the final MP’s ballot were announced. My phone erupted with messages, all saying some version of “WTF?!”. Well, except for one lefty friend who sent congratulations for losing the next general election. Given the way the campaign has run, the previous rounds of voting and the general sense of where the factions stood, very few now anticipated a Jenrick-Badenoch final two. It was, on any measure, an upset.

Everyone had made two assumptions about how the final stages would flow. The first was that Cleverly had done well at conference and that this would give him momentum. It was borne out by the result of the penultimate ballot, which had seen him surge. The second was that the contest would come down to a fight between a moderate[1] and a candidate from the right. With Tugendhat out of the race, this suggested his supporters would swing behind Cleverly and boost him into the final two. The actual result confounded all these assumptions.