A VONC now would be an act of self-immolation

The public will not indulge another Tory leadership spat

It is now a year since Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister. The moment will pass with little fanfare – except, it is widely believed that this now marks the point where he can face an internal challenge. The rules of the 1922 Committee are secretive, but it is asserted by those in the know that they provide a 12-month grace period for a new Prime Minister before a vote of no confidence can take place. Sunak is now vulnerable to this.

It is unfortunate timing for him. Last week’s by-elections were unambiguous. There was no silver lining like in Uxbridge. The results were embarrassing and confirmed that the polls are broadly right and that the Tories are on for a historic defeat at the next election. While it seems amazing that so many of the party hadn’t twigged this already, now only the utterly deluded could ignore it.

The threat of losing galvanises Tory MPs like nothing else. Few are stirred by ideology, and hardly any are motivated by policy or outcomes. But they do care about being out of power, especially if their own seats are vulnerable. So several have now reportedly been stirred into submitting letters of no confidence in Sunak, the first step towards triggering a vote. Proceeding with this course of action, however, would be catastrophically self-destructive for the party.